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tell a real scientific and I think

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public policies success story

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and it's about the ozone layer you can

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see the globe here we divide the

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atmosphere and variety of layers the

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troposphere is the lowest layer it's

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where all of our weather occurs the

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stratosphere is the next layer up and

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that's what I'm gonna really focus on

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because that's where most of our

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atmospheric ozone is located now ozone

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is critical in our atmosphere because it

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screams ultraviolet radiation

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ultraviolet radiation these are

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energetic solar photons there are they

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are strong enough to break the bonds of

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biologically active molecules like DNA

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for example so if you decrease the

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amount of ozone which is screening this

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UV radiation you get more at the surface

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and what that will do is that you get

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you sunburn a little more quickly

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for example person like me I'm not

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though for about 15 minutes and I'll get

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a sunburn but it does a lot of other

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things it impacts crops it can cause

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cataracts there's a famous study of

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watermen out here on the Chesapeake Bay

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in which they found that their amount of

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time on the bay was proportional to the

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cataracts that they got longer you were

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out there the more cataracts you're not

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but that's extended exposure over the

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years so zone is really a critical mass

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of our atmosphere in 1974 these two

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gentlemen on the right this is sherry

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Rowland and this is Mario Molina they

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proposed that there were a class of

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gases being emitted into our atmosphere

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they could destroy the ozone layer

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these are chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs so

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they proposed this and it was quite

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controversial at the time they took a

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lot of heat because this

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chlorofluorocarbon industry the chemical

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industry there is used in a variety of

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different kinds of products you can see

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some of these like many of us remember

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used to be used as a propellant for hair

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sprays and do

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it was used to make foam products like

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these cups that you would get from

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McDonald's or other companies it was

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used to CFCs were used in air

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conditioners and in car air conditioners

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was also there's another kind of a gas

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called a Halon Halen's are used in fire

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extinguishers they contain bromine they

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can also destroy ozone so this is

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proposed in 1974 and there was a huge

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amount of energy and effort that was

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going in in the late 70s and the early

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80s to see what the impact is on ozone

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to measure ozone these gases in

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particular now in 1985 there was a

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publication of a paper on ozone down

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over Antarctica and these three

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gentlemen here this is Joe fireman Brian

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Gardner and John Shanklin they're

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standing in front of an instrument that

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measures the total amount of ozone

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between the surface and space and they

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published their data and you can see it

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here this is a measurement this is the

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total amount of ozone the bathroom in

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space over this station it's Hallie

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stationed down in Antarctica and what

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they showed was that the level of ozone

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was dropping and it was dropping really

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fast okay there's an amazing study that

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they published and the quality of these

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data are such that there was no dispute

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to this ozone was going down and it was

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going down fast this was a real shock to

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the atmospheric community when this

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paper was published shortly thereafter

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this was in in the in 1985 also a

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scientist at the NASA Goddard Space

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Flight Center

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TK partyi made an image of what this

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don't look like over Antarctica and so

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you can see Nrap here in the center

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South America Africa Australia and here

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in the middle is this very low ozone

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area these red colors and yellows you

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just see here indicates very low ozone

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and it was dubbed the Antarctic ozone

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hole so ozone was going down fast and it

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was a huge region this is a very large

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region

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all this this continent of Antarctica is

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a large area so there's a large

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depletion over a large area and we

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didn't actually understand what was

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going on at the time but within a couple

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of years we figured out it was actually

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due to these chlorofluorocarbons inhale

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ons so there was a lot of consternation

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about this what are we going to do how

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can we stop it

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what other measurements can we make the

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rising concern about the problem amongst

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the nations of the world there was

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already discussion about should we get

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together and create an agreement and in

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fact after a couple years they did

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create an agreement this is an agreement

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called the Montreal Protocol these are

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this is a shows a meeting of the parties

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to the Montreal Protocol it took place

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in Doha and in Peninsula and here you

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can see the Montreal Protocol had a

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series of agreements the initial one and

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then they were added on to further

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strengthening regulations of these

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chlorofluorocarbons so eventually the

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the production of chlorofluorocarbons

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and Halen's

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was fully agreed to now you can see the

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nations of the world there little signs

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here here you can see this is me sitting

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way in the back of this meeting even

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though the scientists we bring them all

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the information we're always put at the

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back of a meeting when they need us

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calling us but we sit in the back and

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listen to all the discussions and most

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of these discussions are about country's

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ability to maybe use a CFC for a short

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time there are a lot of different things

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going on in these meetings ok so now

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what's happened with ozone well first of

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all let me talk about chlorine so

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chlorine it was going up and up and up

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through the 1960s 1970s 1980s these are

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the combination of all the CFCs and a

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Long's and then the Montreal Protocol

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was signed here in 1987 and slowly those

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regulations began to take hold and in

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fact the projection

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is that Oh are these ozone depleting

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substances are going to decline with

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time now this is going to take a long

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time because CFCs these

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chlorofluorocarbons have long lifetimes

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for example I'm CFC 11 has a lifetime of

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about 52 years CFC 12 which was used in

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your car air conditioners has a lifetime

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of over a hundred years so it's going to

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take a long time even though the

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production and emissions of these gases

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has been regulated it's going to take a

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long time for them to come out of our

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atmosphere so what's happening with

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ozone now so this is showing this is in

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percentage the change of ozone over time

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and percentage you can see the

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observations as you go into the 80s you

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can see that ozone was going down the

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CFCs were increasing the Montreal

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Protocol the sign here pretty soon the

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chlorine that started to decrease and

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you can almost see there's a Mount

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Pinatubo effect right here but you can

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almost see that ozone isn't going down

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anymore and maybe there's a hint that

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things are starting to go up we can't

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say that as scientists we can't say

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that's true yet but I think we're

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getting to the point within the next few

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years I think we'll actually be able to

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say statistically that ozone is

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increasing in our atmosphere let's keep

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our fingers crossed now the other way of

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looking at this is we can use a model to

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take a look at what would have happened

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to ozone if we've done nothing so I'm

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going to show you a little model study

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here and on the top left I'm going to

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show you the expected world and this is

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with the Montreal Protocol CFCs are

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going to decline over here is what we

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call the world avoided and this is

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chlorine going up if you look on the

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picture you can see the amount of

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chlorine in the expected world and the

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amount of chlorine in the world avoided

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so you can see here it's four point five

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there it's already a little bit higher

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because of the Montreal Protocol it's

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this is because the mantra protocol

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that's without one and you can see it's

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flying by fairly quickly as you can see

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the date in the right you can see the

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ozone hole appearing every year

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chlorine continues to go up in this

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world avoided and

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now you can actually see it peek down in

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about four that's a slow decline is

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we're up to 20 22 24 if you look here at

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this world avoided you can now start

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seeing a little zone hole deep low

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values appearing over the Arctic and you

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see the very very large ozone loss in

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over the Antarctic region if you look at

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the expected world you don't see any of

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those things and in fact as chlorine

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continues to increase you can see ozone

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going down now in the tropics and in the

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sub tropics so you can see that here

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your dominated by reds and oranges the

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higher the zone levels in the world

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avoided you can see that ozone is

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declining and declining and declining

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now this is about 40 to 50 times time

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you get out to 2065 here this is 40 to

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50 times the natural level of chlorine

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in our atmosphere chlorine and bromine

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combined and this has gone down it's

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about it needs to go down to about 1.2

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this is about halfway there but you can

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see the difference in ozone 65% or

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excuse me

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about two-thirds of the ozone layer is

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destroyed if there had been no Montreal

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Protocol if nothing had been done okay

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now what does that mean that means huge

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impacts on crops for somebody like me I

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mentioned that if I go outside fifteen

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minutes I'll get a perceptible burn and

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that world it's five minutes okay so you

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go out and you walk for a quarter of a

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mile you would get a perceptible sunburn

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so this is an incredibly bad world we

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don't want to live in the out world this

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is the one that we expect now we can do

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is I have already shown we can do these

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projections of where ozone is going here

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we can see the observations this shows a

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model projection and now I'll put two

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model projections on here the lower one

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is is a is a world in which both ozone

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depleting substances it has a Montreal

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Protocol in it they've been regulated

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and Seoul ozone is going up but in one

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greenhouse gases are regulated in the

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other greenhouse gases continue to go

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and in fact ozone continues to go up so

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the net impact of increasing greenhouse

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gases is that the ozone layer begin to

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pile up lots of ozone so instead of a

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depleted ozone the world we're gonna go

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to an ozone world where there's probably

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too much though now what does that mean

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for the environment I actually don't

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know I don't think we know as scientists

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what's going to happen there so let me

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say another word about what happened

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this is I love this picture this I owned

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a 1967 Ford Mustang Fastback it was a

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hot car I love this car

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it had a CFC air conditioner in it okay

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so I was using cfc-12 in that particular

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air condition here's a Tesla a modern

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Tesla it uses a replacement compound

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called an H FC in fact hfc-134a in fact

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in all your cars right now you have that

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particular refrigerant in your car air

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conditioner so this is the compound that

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replaced the CFCs now the beauty of this

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is this is a hydrogen of fluorine and a

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carbon it doesn't have chlorine so it

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doesn't destroy the ozone layer

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the problem with HF sees though is their

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greenhouse gases the particular hfc-134a

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is about pound-for-pound it's about

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1,400 times more efficient at warming

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than co2 so you could take one pound of

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this hfc-134a is equivalent to about

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1,400 pounds of co2 so the replacement

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compounds for the CFCs are greenhouse

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gases and the question is what are we

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going to actually do about these now

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this shows a particular HLC this is hf c

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23 you can see these are observations

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they're increasing the time because we

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replaced the CFCs there are many other

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HFCS this is the one I talked abouts in

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your car air-conditioner 134a this one

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32 and 125 these are probably in your

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home air conditioning units so all these

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HFCS are increasing with time and these

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HFCS

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are

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all powerful greenhouse gases so we

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solved the problem that is the problem

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of ozone depletion but in fact and in

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fact those CFCs were also powerful

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greenhouse gases but we replace them

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with compounds that are also powerful

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greenhouse gases so you could do a lot

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for claim it if you figure it out how to

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take these compounds and replace them

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with compounds that are both friendly to

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the ozone layer and friendly to climate

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and in fact there are technological

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solutions so that goes back to the

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Montreal Protocol the Montreal Protocol

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could in fact take action on these HF

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seasons we don't know that that's gonna

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happen it might so let me kind of

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summarize where we've been so I told you

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a good story we got rid of these CFCs

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there now regulated there still exist in

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various places around the atmosphere but

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they're slowly declining that's a great

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story

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in fact the outcome of that would have

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been an environmental disaster if they

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kept growing we used a lot of satellite

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information to take a look at the ozone

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problem most of the observations you've

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seen on this presentation have come from

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NASA satellites including the aura

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satellite that you can see here now what

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is the future hold well the future's in

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our own hands we have two things we can

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you could regulate these compounds and

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that may happen but the one thing we

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that we really need to do is we need to

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continue to look at the atmosphere to

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continue to make measurements of what's

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happening to our atmosphere and that's

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where satellites like aura and its

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follow-ons are crucial to knowing where